If the bear market for Ethereum ends

If you are an investor and ERC20 token seems to have great potential for you, this will be a good time to pay close attention to these tokens. From September 7 to September 27, 2018, an observation of 574 ERC20 tokens was conducted on the Ethereum One dataset for 20 days. The observation included 2 attributions, which are the average price and the market cap. The figure below illustrates the change in percentage from September 7.

The weighted average portfolio increased by 28% and showed an uptrend since September 7, which had the potential to peak right below 38%. After 10 days, from September 17, the ERC20 market showed positive signs for the bulls. In addition, 198 of the 574 tokens observe (about 34.5%) have the average above that of their last 20-day period, which proves a substantial uptrend.

Why are these tokens rising?

The first thing to mention is that the momentum or trend was not on a per-token basis. Both small and large token showed signs of increase. Also, there was no relation found between the change in percentage and in the capitalization. In short, what happened is not the result of a few large tokens lifting up the whole portfolio, as shown below.

Moreover, there was not a discernible relationship between the increase in transfers logged on the Ethereum blockchain and growth in price.

Still, for utility hypothesis enthusiasts (the value of tokens will grow if the usage value increase), it seems to be profitable to invest in those tokens that have a high utility on Ethereum Blockchain. It can be claimed that the theory mentioned above might be right and what we have observed, the lack of correlation is just a result of misestimation for market value and investment opportunity. If you are seeking a more persuasive explanation, you may found the answer in the chart below. With 198 tokens that have uprising momentum of which the price above the average and their transfer growth rate percentile high ranked, it is convincing that the market is now in a favourable stage for investment.
From this perspective, tokens in the bottom right of the chart (those are high in market cap adjusted transfers but have yet shown a sign of the increase in price) might be the golden investment opportunity for utility hypothesis supporters.